SKP po letu 2022 scenariji in vpliv na dohodek – analiza primerov izbranih tipičnih kmetijskih gospodarstev v Sloveniji

Jaka ŽGAJNAR, Luka JUVANČIČ, Stane KAVČIČ, Emil ERJAVEC

Povzetek


Ocena vpliva na podlagi reprezentativnih kmetijskih gospodarstev je uveljavljen pristop v sodobnih ocenah učinkov sprememb kmetijske politike. Glede na prejšnje reforme SKP, lahko pričakujemo vplive prerazporeditve dohodka tudi z izvajanjem zakonodajnega in finančnega okvira SKP za naslednje obdobje. V prispevku obravnavamo analizo vpliva z uporabo modela kmetijskih gospodarstev. Model temelji na konceptu linearnega programiranja, ki omogoča reševanje različnih tehnoloških izzivov na ravni kmetijskih gospodarstev. Scenarije za analizo smo oblikovali po zgledu scenarijev iz ocene učinka, ki jo je Evropska komisija pripravila za SKP po letu 2020. Analiza vključuje izbrana kmetijska gospodarstva različnih proizvodnih usmeritev. Rezultati kažejo, da bo pričakovano zmanjšanje sredstev na ravni kmetij na splošno povzročilo manjše prihodke iz naslova neposrednih plačil SKP. Posledično se bo ekonomska slika poslabšala, kar se bo v nekaterih sektorjih dodatno odrazilo zaradi ukinitve zgodovinskih plačil. Verjeten razpon posledic na ravni kmetijskih gospodarstev bo sicer precejšen, zlasti pri sektorjih in proizvodnjah z velikim deležem plačil SKP v strukturi celotnega dohodka kmetij. Pri določenih sektorjih pa se nakazuje celo izboljšanje trenutne situacije.

Ključne besede


neposredna plačila; SKP strateški načrt; model kmetijskih gospodarstev; analiza vpliva

Celotno besedilo:

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Literatura


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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.14720/aas.2021.117.2.2116

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