Umerjanje modela LINGRA-N za simulacijo pridelka posameznih vrst trav in trajnega travinja v Sloveniji

Tjaša POGAČAR, Domen IPAVEC, Janko VERBIČ, Lučka KAJFEŽ-BOGATAJ

Povzetek


V raziskavi smo model LINGRA-N umerjali na podlagi minimizacije kvadratnega korena napake (RMSE) ter ocenjevali kakovost umerjenega modela. Uporabili smo podatke o pridelku suhe snovi navadne pasje trave (Dactylis glomerata L.) in trpežne ljuljke (Lolium perenne L.) v Jabljah v obdobju 1998–2013 ter trajnega travinja v Ljubljani (S72) v obdobju 1974–1993. Glede na RMSE se je izkazalo, da je bilo umerjanje primerno (RMSE% < 25 %) za trpežno ljuljko in dobro za navadno pasjo travo ter trajno travinje (RMSE% < 15 %). Vendar pa je indeks ujemanja (d) pokazal, da za S72 model ni dovolj dobro umerjen, da bi sledil medletni variabilnosti pridelka, kar pomeni, da ga v taki obliki ne moremo uporabiti za nadaljnje modeliranje pridelka trajnega travinja. Za navadno pasjo travo (d = 0,84) in trpežno ljuljko (d = 0,78) so rezultati dobri. Umerjen model bomo zato uporabili za simulacijo pridelka posamezne vrste trave pri različnih vremenskih razmerah in pod vplivom podnebnih sprememb na specifični lokaciji.

Ključne besede


pridelek; travna ruša; modeliranje; LINGRA-N; umerjanje; ocena kakovosti; variabilnost; navadna pasja trava; trpežna ljuljka

Celotno besedilo:

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Literatura


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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.14720/aas.2015.105.1.12

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