Ukinitev izvoznih subvencij, zmanjševanje domače proizvodnje: input-output analiza švicarskega mlečnega sektorja po ukinitvi subvencij v okviru “Čokoladnega zakona”

Seyhan KÂHYA, Aleš KUHAR

Povzetek


“Čokoladni zakon” v Švici omogoča subvencije za proizvajalce mleka in pšenice, ob pogoju, da bodo šli njihovi proizvodi v izvoz po predelavi (Swiss Federation, 2011). Tako je ministrska konferenca Svetovne trgovinske organizacije decembra 2015 odločila, da je ta zakon treba odpraviti do leta 2021 (WTO, 2015). Ukinitev subvencij lahko vodi do šoka povpraševanja in posledično zmanjšanja domače proizvodnje (Miller in Blair, 1985). V tej študiji smo analizirali soodvisnost agroživilskih sektorjev z Leontievim input-output modelom in njihovih povezav z drugimi panogami (Chereny in Watanabe, 1958, Leontief 1986) in dodatno proučili obseg, smer in razpršenost morebitnega šoka povpraševanja. Predelovalce hrane, razen predelovalcev mesa, in predelovalce mleka in mlečnih izdelkov smo opredelili kot ključne sektorje, ker imajo močne povezave, večinoma koncentrirane na manjše število sektorjev. Oba sektorja sta močno odvisna od prireje surovega mleka in imata omejeno število sektorjev za prodajo svojih izdelkov. Izvzemši sektorje, kjer bodo ukinili subvencije, bosta ravno ta dva sektorja najbolj prizadeta z novo politiko.

Ključne besede


kmetijstvo; živilstvo; kmetijsko-živilski sektor; mleko; prireja; mlečni izdelki; izvozne subvencije; input-output analiza; zakonodaja; Čokoladni zakon; Švica

Celotno besedilo:

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Literatura


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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.14720/aas.2016.108.2.2

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